Mass Deportations in Texas Likely to Precede Economic Downturn

Texas has been working hard to round up undocumented community members since the start of the second Trump Administration. But the role immigrants have played in boosting the economy is likely to be missed.

Gov. Greg Abbott’s five executive orders signed late last month included one directing the Texas Military Department to help the U.S. Northern Command in “repelling the invasion, securing the southern border, and neutralizing foreign enemies infiltrating Texas.”  The Texas Department of Criminal Justice and the Texas Facilities Commissions were also directed to find all Texas land and facilities for the state’s federal partners to lease and use to detain and deport undocumented immigrants. 

In a statement released February 5, Gov. Greg Abbott praised President Trump’s aggressive approach to immigration:

“For the past four years, Texas has worked around-the-clock to defend our southern border while former President Joe Biden refused to protect our country from an invasion he allowed,” Abbott said in Wednesday’s press release. “Now, we have a Commander-in-Chief in the White House who will do what is necessary to protect Americans.”

Abbot, however, does not mention the $3.4 billion cost of the day-to-day detainment of undocumented citizens for the month of January. In total, a single mass detention operation is estimated to cost $167.8 billion.

In an article produced by Texas Matters entitled, “How Mass Deportations Impact Texas Agriculture,” writer David Martin Davies discusses the economic impact that President Trump’s multiple executive orders cracking down on immigration will ultimately have. According to Davies, about 73% of farmworks are foreign born, and a large number lack legal citizenship. In America, our agriculture is a $1.537 trillion industry where 70% of farmworkers are immigrants, 40% of which are undocumented. The sentiment that immigrants are the backbone of the US workforce is not an exaggeration. It’s a statement of fact. 

According to America’s Voice, the beat against the backbone is already being felt. A business owner being interviewed under the pseudonym of Marta stated that one day into Trump’s presidency, her primarily Mexican clientele was already taking a nosedive. 

This dip in business is symbolic, according to Voice Matters, of what happened in 2010-2011 when Arizona and Alabama implemented harsher immigration laws. Arizona’s Senate Bill 1070 required immigrants to carry proof of their undocumented status and allowed police to stop people to ask for documentation if they have “reasonable suspicion,” that someone is an immigrant. 

“Parents stop sending their citizen children to school for fear of being detained and separated from those children; they stop going to the doctor—despite being sick—with the risk of creating a health crisis; they stop going to the supermarket, pharmacies, and other businesses—with a devastating effect on the economy. They stop working in the fields, leading to the loss of crops and disrupting the food chain, increasing the price of goods. They stop working in construction, caring for children, the elderly, and homebound people; in manufacturing; and in hotels and restaurants. This is already happening,” America’s Voice stated in a press release. 

America’s H2A visa program, which allows U.S. employers who meet the requirements to bring in migrant workers, appears to still be holding firm even as the raids persist. However, the workers are inevitably shaken, possibly leaving the agricultural workforce in constant anxiety. Additionally, if there is an increase of visas during such a contentious time for immigrants, it could also lead to immigrants who are under the H2A visa program being taken advantage of, something that has already been taking place. 

In 2023, Prism, a non-profit news organization presented the results of their 18 month long investigation into the H2A visa program that it was riddled with corruption. 

“Despite employers’ claims that the H-2A program is too “expensive” and “bureaucratically complex,” American employers prefer to utilize the H-2A program over hiring U.S. workers because they see foreign workers as “exploitable,” Tina Vasquez wrote for Prism.

According to Prism, recruiters are even sent out, specifically seeking out the most disadvantaged. People who are far less likely to say no because their need is too high. 

“Unfortunately, recruiters take advantage of the most needy, the desperate, the ones who will give someone almost anything they own … for the opportunity to work in the U.S.,” Mike Rios, a regional agricultural enforcement coordinator said. 

With further backing from Gov. Abbott, we are likely to see a sharp decline in agriculture that will inevitably hurt our wallets. If the work both requires more people than the U.S. can produce, and more work than most people are willing to put in, there will be an economic hole. Between this and the tariffs, agriculture heavy states like Texas are bound to see prices skyrocket.

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